Mississippi St at Buffalo: Matchup

Saturday Nov 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET · Broadview Arena, Buffalo, NY
Odds: not collected yet · Rating projection: Mississippi St by 24.1 (99% to win)

General Info Odds Ratings & Stats Records & Results More games from Nov 14

General Info

Overview

Offensive Stat Comparison

Stat	MSST	BUF
Points per Game	91.0	72.0
Average Scoring Margin	+43.5	-11.5
Assists per Game	17.5	18.0
Total Rebounds per Game	50.0	40.0
Effective Field Goal %	57.2%	56.3%
Offensive Rebounding %	40.5%	29.6%
Free Throws Attempted per Field Goal Attempted	0.252	0.359
Turnovers per Possession	22.8%	34.5%

Defensive Stat Comparison

Stat	MSST	BUF
Opponent Points per Game	47.5	83.5
Opponent Effective Field Goal %	29.6%	51.8%
Offensive Rebounds per Game	15.0	8.0
Defensive Rebounds per Game	35.0	32.0
Blocks per Game	7.0	4.5
Steals per Game	16.5	6.0
Personal Fouls per Game	16.0	20.0

Travel Analysis and Injury Report

Not available yet. Travel distance needs arena locations, and there is no free injury feed for the women's game.

Odds

Point Spread, Over/Under and Money Line

Lines and line movement appear here once the Odds API key is added to the repo. Betting picks are intentionally left out.

Ratings & Stats

Power Ratings

	MSST	BUF
Predictive Rating	+15.9	-10.9
Power Rank	#31	#323
Strength of Schedule (played)	-5.6	-2.3
SOS Rank	282	234
Future SOS	+10.6	-0.5
Record	2-0	1-1
Win Probability	99%	1%

Home advantage in the projection: +2.7 points.

Matchup Stats

Stat	MSST	Rank	BUF	Rank
Points per Game	91.0	#28	72.0	#161
Average Scoring Margin	+43.5	#20	-11.5	#292
Offensive Efficiency	1.119	#62	0.902	#231
Floor %	51.9%	#48	42.6%	#215
1st Half Points per Game	41.5	#62	36.0	#137
2nd Half Points per Game	49.5	#16	36.0	#179
Overtime Points per Game	0.0	#15	0.0	#15
Average 1st Half Margin	+14.5	#66	+2.0	#211
Average 2nd Half Margin	+29.0	#10	-13.5	#336
Average Overtime Margin	--	--	--	--
Points from 2 Pointers	57.0	#12	46.0	#68
Points from 3 Pointers	22.5	#106	12.0	#310
Percent of Points from 2 Pointers	62.6%	#50	63.9%	#43
Percent of Points from 3 Pointers	24.7%	#223	16.7%	#329
Percent of Points from Free Throws	12.6%	#321	19.4%	#140
Shooting %	51.8%	#18	52.4%	#15
Effective Field Goal %	57.2%	#28	56.3%	#33
Three Point %	36.6%	#60	33.3%	#98
Two Point %	58.2%	#28	58.2%	#26
Free Throw %	65.7%	#251	75.7%	#82
True Shooting %	58.5%	#33	59.7%	#27
Field Goals Made per Game	36.0	#11	27.0	#136
Field Goals Attempted per Game	69.5	#55	51.5	#330
Three Pointers Made per Game	7.5	#106	4.0	#310
Three Pointers Attempted per Game	20.5	#204	12.0	#353
Free Throws Made per Game	11.5	#224	14.0	#136
Free Throws Attempted per Game	17.5	#210	18.5	#181
Three Point Rate	29.5%	#278	23.3%	#345
Two Point Rate	70.5%	#86	76.7%	#19
Free Throws Attempted per Field Goal Attempted	0.252	#267	0.359	#94
Free Throws Made per 100 Possessions	14.1	#268	17.5	#176
Free Throws Attempted per Offensive Play	18.2%	#261	21.1%	#182
Non-blocked 2 Pt %	61.3%	#37	61.3%	#36
Offensive Rebounds per Game	15.0	#105	8.0	#330
Defensive Rebounds per Game	35.0	#6	32.0	#36
Total Rebounds per Game	50.0	#18	40.0	#156
Offensive Rebounding %	40.5%	#82	29.6%	#266
Defensive Rebounding %	67.3%	#205	83.1%	#9
Total Rebounding % (Rebound Rate)	56.2%	#95	61.1%	#26
Blocks per Game	7.0	#12	4.5	#81
Steals per Game	16.5	#28	6.0	#313
Block %	10.8%	#28	6.5%	#136
Steals per Possession	20.1%	#38	7.4%	#334
Steals per Defensive Play	16.6%	#47	6.9%	#322
Assists per Game	17.5	#71	18.0	#56
Turnovers per Game	18.5	#249	27.5	#354
Turnovers per Possession	22.8%	#201	34.5%	#349
Assist / Turnover Ratio	0.946	#152	0.655	#257
Assists per FGM	0.486	#267	0.667	#42
Assists per Possession	21.5%	#118	22.6%	#97
Turnovers per Offensive Play	19.2%	#204	31.3%	#350
Personal Fouls per Game	16.0	#99	20.0	#259
Personal Fouls per Possession	19.5%	#43	24.7%	#205
Personal Fouls per Defensive Play	16.1%	#27	22.9%	#265
Opponent Points per Game	47.5	#45	83.5	#339
Opponent Average Scoring Margin	-43.5	#20	+11.5	#292
Defensive Efficiency	0.579	#19	1.033	#315
Opponent Floor %	27.6%	#23	47.8%	#324
Opponent 1st Half Points per Game	27.0	#120	34.0	#251
Opponent 2nd Half Points per Game	20.5	#14	49.5	#357
Opponent Overtime Points per Game	0.0	#1	0.0	#1
Opponent Points from 2 Pointers	28.0	#96	52.0	#353
Opponent Points from 3 Pointers	10.5	#40	19.5	#237
Opponent Percent of Points from 2 Pointers	58.9%	#276	62.3%	#314
Opponent Percent of Points from 3 Pointers	22.1%	#100	23.4%	#115
Opponent Percent of Points from Free Throws	18.9%	#186	14.4%	#70
Opponent Shooting %	26.9%	#17	47.1%	#329
Opponent Effective Field Goal %	29.6%	#12	51.8%	#316
Opponent Three Point %	13.0%	#6	28.3%	#193
Opponent Two Point %	36.8%	#77	56.5%	#347
Opponent Free Throw %	56.2%	#30	72.7%	#251
Opponent True Shooting %	32.7%	#10	54.3%	#310
Opponent Field Goals Made per Game	17.5	#66	32.5	#353
Opponent Field Goals Attempted per Game	65.0	#295	69.0	#338
Opponent Three Pointers Made per Game	3.5	#40	6.5	#237
Opponent Three Pointers Attempted per Game	27.0	#333	23.0	#250
Opponent Free Throws Made per Game	9.0	#74	12.0	#183
Opponent Free Throws Attempted per Game	16.0	#135	16.5	#153
Opponent Three Point Rate	41.5%	#297	33.3%	#152
Opponent Two Point Rate	58.5%	#67	66.7%	#207
Opponent Free Throws Attempted per Field Goal Attempted	0.246	#107	0.239	#95
Opponent Free Throws Made per 100 Possessions	11.0	#55	14.8	#139
Opponent Free Throws Attempted per Offensive Play	16.1%	#92	18.9%	#140
Opponent Non-blocked 2 Pt %	45.2%	#129	62.7%	#354
Opponent Offensive Rebounds per Game	17.0	#326	6.5	#12
Opponent Defensive Rebounds per Game	22.0	#93	19.0	#30
Opponent Total Rebounds per Game	39.0	#242	25.5	#13
Opponent Offensive Rebounding %	32.7%	#205	16.9%	#9
Opponent Defensive Rebounding %	59.5%	#82	70.4%	#266
Opponent Blocks per Game	2.5	#122	2.0	#69
Opponent Steals per Game	7.0	#114	16.5	#358
Opponent Block %	3.6%	#98	3.9%	#120
Opponent Steals per Possession	8.6%	#87	20.7%	#354
Opponent Steals per Defensive Play	7.3%	#83	18.8%	#356
Opponent Assists per Game	6.0	#16	17.5	#332
Opponent Turnovers per Game	26.5	#34	10.5	#348
Opponent Turnovers per Possession	32.3%	#51	13.0%	#357
Opponent Assist / Turnover Ratio	0.226	#14	1.667	#352
Opponent Assists per FGM	0.343	#15	0.538	#177
Opponent Assists per Possession	7.3%	#14	21.6%	#308
Opponent Turnovers per Offensive Play	26.7%	#77	12.0%	#352
Opponent Personal Fouls per Game	18.5	#171	19.5	#123
Opponent Personal Fouls per Possession	22.8%	#253	24.4%	#189
Opponent Personal Fouls per Defensive Play	19.2%	#252	22.2%	#132
Games Played	2	#184	2	#184
Possessions per Game	81.3	#41	79.8	#59
Extra Scoring Chances per Game	+6.0	#146	-15.5	#343
Effective Possession Ratio	0.957	#183	0.756	#354
Opponent Effective Possession Ratio	0.884	#136	0.951	#256
Win % - All Games	100.0%	#1	50.0%	#176
Win % - Close Games	--	--	100.0%	#1

Efficiency Stats

Stat	MSST	Rank	BUF	Rank
Offensive Efficiency	1.119	#62	0.902	#231
Defensive Efficiency	0.579	#19	1.033	#315
Possessions per Game	81.3	#41	79.8	#59
Effective Field Goal %	57.2%	#28	56.3%	#33
Opponent Effective Field Goal %	29.6%	#12	51.8%	#316
Turnovers per Possession	22.8%	#201	34.5%	#349
Opponent Turnovers per Possession	32.3%	#51	13.0%	#357
Offensive Rebounding %	40.5%	#82	29.6%	#266
Defensive Rebounding %	67.3%	#205	83.1%	#9
Free Throws Attempted per Field Goal Attempted	0.252	#267	0.359	#94
Opponent Free Throws Attempted per Field Goal Attempted	0.246	#107	0.239	#95
True Shooting %	58.5%	#33	59.7%	#27
Effective Possession Ratio	0.957	#183	0.756	#354

Stat Splits

Stat	MSST Season	Last 3	Home	Away	BUF Season	Last 3	Home	Away
Points per Game	91.0	91.0	68.0	114.0	72.0	72.0	82.0	62.0
Opponent Points per Game	47.5	47.5	27.0	68.0	83.5	83.5	81.0	86.0
Average Scoring Margin	+43.5	+43.5	+41.0	+46.0	-11.5	-11.5	+1.0	-24.0
Offensive Efficiency	1.119	1.119	0.943	1.260	0.902	0.902	1.045	0.765
Defensive Efficiency	0.579	0.579	0.369	0.746	1.033	1.033	1.050	1.018
Effective Field Goal %	57.2%	57.2%	45.3%	67.3%	56.3%	56.3%	64.2%	48.0%
Three Point %	36.6%	36.6%	21.1%	50.0%	33.3%	33.3%	30.8%	36.4%
Turnovers per Possession	22.8%	22.8%	25.0%	21.0%	34.5%	34.5%	31.8%	37.0%
Offensive Rebounding %	40.5%	40.5%	43.6%	37.1%	29.6%	29.6%	34.6%	25.0%

Rosters & Stats

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Player	Pos	GP	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO
Favour Nwaedozi	F	2	20.5	17.5	12.5	0.5	0.5	1.5	3.0
Tootie Lockett	G	2	21.5	11.5	3.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	1.0
Reese Beaty	G	2	27.0	10.5	0.5	7.5	2.0	0.0	1.5
Madison Francis	F	2	21.5	9.5	8.5	2.5	1.5	2.5	2.5
Cali Smallwood	G	2	19.5	8.5	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0
Aryss Macktoon	G	2	13.0	7.5	2.5	0.5	2.5	1.0	1.5
Macie Phifer	G	2	22.5	6.5	4.5	0.5	1.5	0.5	1.5
Melissa Guillet	G	2	14.5	5.0	2.5	2.0	1.0	0.0	1.0
Lani Smallwood	G	2	12.5	5.0	3.0	1.0	3.0	0.0	1.5
Grace Ndubueze	F	2	13.0	5.0	5.0	0.0	2.0	1.5	1.5
Ludovica Sammartino	F	2	10.0	3.0	3.0	1.5	1.0	0.0	3.0
Andrea Flores	G	2	4.0	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.5
Arianny Francisco de Oliveira	F	1	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Buffalo Bulls

Player	Pos	GP	Min	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO
Ava LaMonica	G	2	27.5	17.0	3.0	1.5	0.5	0.0	6.0
Asia Wilson	G	2	33.0	14.5	5.0	7.0	1.5	0.5	4.5
Ella Corry	G	2	25.5	11.0	2.5	1.5	0.0	0.0	1.5
Meg Lucas	F	2	35.5	10.5	12.0	3.5	1.5	0.5	4.0
Jadeah Marshall	C	2	15.5	7.0	3.0	0.0	1.0	2.5	2.5
Ella Wickstrom	G	2	16.5	3.5	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	1.5
Layla Hearne	G	1	22.0	6.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Briana Young	G	2	22.5	2.5	4.0	2.5	1.5	0.0	2.5
Diann Jackson	F	1	17.0	4.0	5.0	1.0	0.0	2.0	6.0
Oyinkansola Soetan	F	1	6.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0
Kyleigh Hall	F	1	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Records & Results

Situational Trends

Situation	MSST W-L	Avg Margin	BUF W-L	Avg Margin
All Games	2-0	+43.5	1-1	-11.5
As Home Team	1-0	+41.0	1-0	+1.0
As Away Team	1-0	+46.0	0-1	-24.0
At Neutral Site	0-0	--	0-0	--
Against Ranked Opponents	0-0	--	0-0	--
After A Win	1-0	+46.0	0-1	-24.0
After A Loss	0-0	--	0-0	--
Conference Games	0-0	--	0-0	--
Non-Conference Games	2-0	+43.5	1-1	-11.5
1 Day Off or Less	0-0	--	0-0	--
2-3 Days Off	0-0	--	0-0	--
4+ Days Off	1-0	+46.0	0-1	-24.0
Close Games (5 or fewer)	0-0	--	1-0	+1.0
Last 5 Games	2-0	+43.5	1-1	-11.5
Last 10 Games	2-0	+43.5	1-1	-11.5

Against-the-spread and over/under records start once lines are collected.

Dual Game Log

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Date	Opponent	Result	Margin	Off Eff	Def Eff
Nov 3	#231 North Alabama	W 68-27	+41	0.943	0.369
Nov 8	at #266 UT Martin	W 114-68	+46	1.260	0.746

Buffalo Bulls

Date	Opponent	Result	Margin	Off Eff	Def Eff
Nov 2	#274 Georgia St	W 82-81	+1	1.045	1.050
Nov 7	at #124 Youngstown St	L 62-86	-24	0.765	1.018

Head to Head

No meetings since 2021-22.

Common Opponents

No common opponents yet this season.